/>iShort, Significant Senate Week
The House is out this week for the Juneteenth holiday, but the Senate will be in town through Wednesday. We expect these three days to be significant because the Senate Finance Committee has announced that it intends to release its reconciliation text today. The Finance Committee has jurisdiction over some of the most controversial provisions, including Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Medicare, and taxes. While we are focused on the health provisions, it is important to remember that reconciliation is mainly a tax bill, and much debate is focused on the tax provisions. Last week, the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee released its text, which included one ACA provision that mirrors the House-passed language to fund cost-sharing reduction payments for Marketplace plans, with strict limitations against those funds going to plans that cover abortions. The Finance Committee text will likely include additional ACA provisions like those included in H.R. 1 as it passed the House. The committee may also make substantive changes to the House-passed Medicaid provisions.
One important caveat is that the Finance Committee language is likely to have gaps and placeholders for language that is still being developed or negotiated, and any provision is subject to change. Senate language also must comply with the Byrd rule to enable Senate passage by a simple majority, so additional modifications may be made via that process as well.
Republican leadership set July 4, 2025, as the target date to send the bill to President Trump’s desk. That leaves three weeks, one of which is supposed to be a congressional recess week, to pass the bill in the Senate and send it back to the House for its consideration. Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) indicated he’d like the Senate to vote on the package the week of June 23, 2025, to meet this timeline. As the Senate modifies language to win votes from Republicans who have expressed concerns, it will have to be careful to ensure that the changes will be able to pass the House.
Given all of these complicating factors, the timeline could slip as negotiations and the Byrd rule process continue. Because Republicans aim to address the debt limit in reconciliation, the more significant deadline to sign the bill into law is by the August recess, which is when the US Department of the Treasury expects the United States to reach the debt limit.
