With Congress returning to Washington, D.C. from its Memorial Day work period, Senators are focusing heavily on the timeline and details of legislation that would significantly alter the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Over the last week, many senior Senators have expressed skepticism regarding whether they can pass a bill, but Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has laid out an aggressive timeline. Specifically, he would like the chamber to vote on a bill before the July 4th recess and use the rest of July to reconcile the House and Senate versions, leading to a final vote before the August recess. Congressional Republicans are eager to move beyond health care in order to take up tax reform and FY2018 federal government funding. 

The Great Medicaid Expansion Divide 

Senate Republicans are in agreement that their bill will be significantly different from what the House passed earlier this year, but that is where consensus ends. The main sticking point is how to appease Senators on both sides of the expansion – states that expanded and those that did not – in order to cobble together 50 votes (with Vice President Pence delivering the 51st). Those that did expand their Medicaid population don’t want to see their expansion population lose coverage, and those that did not expand, believe they are entitled to an additional financial benefit so they are not at a disadvantage as compared to the expansion states. 

Achieving the required savings under reconciliation, while appeasing both factions, is proving extremely difficult. At this point, Democrats are not expected to vote for any Senate bill that significantly modifies the ACA so Republicans must rely entirely on their own Conference. Senators are also concerned about the alarming number of Americans projected to lose coverage under the House passed bill, and are developing a plan that would provide more generous tax subsidies for purchasing coverage. At this point, there is very little interest in including changes to the Essential Health Benefits package as was done in the House bill. 

Still Awaiting the House-Passed Bill 

In an interesting twist, the Senate parliamentarian is still in the process of reviewing the House-passed bill to make sure it does not violate Senate rules. Therefore, the legislative vehicle has still not officially been delivered to the Senate from the House. A ruling is expected this week.