Earlier this year, Womble Bond Dickinson published a seven-part series discussing how delays in permitting for mining project could affect the ability to provide the minerals necessary to accomplish the energy transition. With the election of Donald Trump for a second term as president, the United States is likely to adopt policies more favorable to efficient permitting. But there remain competing goals and commitments within the next administration’s framework, creating (potentially unintentional) friction points and potential roadblocks to permitting reform.

The Trump administration is focused on promoting oil and gas development. It is not clear the extent to which the administration will devote attention to mining permitting reform, especially in the context of critical minerals for the energy transition. The only mention of permitting reform in the Republican Party Platform is to streamline permitting for oil, natural gas and coal. To the extent the concept of the “energy transition” is seen as a transition away from fossil fuels to other sources of energy, the Trump administration will not take steps to facilitate that transition. For example, the Trump administration is unlikely to incentivize the development of electric vehicles. While the influence of Elon Musk on the Trump administration might be seen as an avenue to promoting EVs, Musk recently told Congress that he favors terminating all credits for EVs. Musk apparently thinks that Telsa can compete in the EV market without those credits.

While the Trump Administration has made clear that it will take steps to promote and facilitate fossil fuel development, a read between the lines would suggest that the incoming Administration is also favorably disposed to promoting domestic mine development. The Republican Party Platform does include a promise to bring critical supply chains back home, which could include critical minerals. For example, in his prior term, Trump reinstated mineral leases for the Twin Metals project in Minnesota that had been rescinded by the Obama administration. The Biden administration later rescinded the leases. In a speech during the campaign, Trump promised to reinstate the leases in “about 10 minutes,” and said, “I pledge to Minnesota miners that when I'm reelected, I will reverse the Biden-Harris attack on your way of life, and we will turn the Iron Range into a mineral powerhouse like never before.” And as a general policy goal, Trump is likely to promote US-based mineral development and manufacturing to reduce reliance on China, which has dominant control of the market for critical minerals. Facilitating U.S. mining projects through permitting reform and other means would be consistent with “onshoring” policies.

That said, the goals and policies of a Trump administration do not provide a clear view of precisely how permitting reform in the mining sector might evolve. As noted in Striking the Balance, one of the major impediments to efficient permit review is a shortage of qualified staff at federal and state agencies to process permitting documents and related NEPA environmental reviews. But the Trump administration is keenly focused on reducing federal employees, which will certainly exacerbate this issue. At the same time, Project 2025 has recommended that President Trump reinstate orders issued by the Secretary of the Interior that place time and page limits on NEPA documents. This effort could make modest progress on the permitting front but is unlikely to be a windfall. Project 2025 also suggests that Congress eliminate judicial review of “the adequacy of NEPA documents or the rectitude of NEPA decisions.” This option, even if passed, would likely invite even more creative litigation in the NEPA space to circumvent the limitations. And anyway, it is unlikely to be a durable solution.

At present, it is difficult (at best) to discern how the Trump administration will balance the desire to streamline mining or other permitting with the effort to reduce resources and authority in the federal agencies. Once the administration is in place and functioning, it will be interesting to see how these goals are pursued as a practical matter.