The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced on November 13, 2024, the release of its latest Pathways to Commercial Liftoff report, “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Sustainable Aviation Fuel,” which analyzes the technical and commercial readiness of several sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production pathways and highlights steps that both the public and private sector can take to make the United States a global leader in SAF production as soon as 2030. According to DOE, key findings from the report include: 

• Announced projects represent over three billion gallons of annual domestic SAF production capacity by 2030, surpassing the U.S. SAF Grand Challenge target. This announced capacity correlates to over ten percent of projected U.S. jet fuel demand, over $44 billion of investment, and over 70,000 jobs across the SAF value chain through 2030;
• SAF liftoff by 2030 will require accelerated deployment of production technologies and feedstocks that are readily available today. In parallel, investments in emerging SAF technologies (e.g., next-generation feedstocks, innovative SAF conversion technologies) are essential to ensure that 100 percent of jet fuel can be sustainable by 2050;
• The biggest barrier to SAF’s scale up is cost. SAF currently costs two to ten times more than fossil jet fuel, depending on the feedstock and conversion technology used to produce it. Federal and state incentives play a necessary role in helping make SAF more cost competitive with fossil jet fuel. Sustained price premiums have limited airlines’ voluntary offtake, however;
• Long-term offtake agreements will establish the demand certainty needed both to improve financing terms and stimulate investment across the SAF value chain. Airlines and producers can extend terms or increase volumes by activating third-party offtakers that are willing to pay for the environmental attribute (carbon abatement) of this low-carbon fuel to reduce their Scope 3 emissions. This activation will require the incorporation of SAF in Scope 3 emissions standards; and
• SAF liftoff will require international policy coordination, including alignment on carbon accounting, feedstock traceability, and book and claim systems.