On February 25, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order directing the Secretary of Commerce to investigate an alleged national security threat to the copper supply chain under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and to report his findings and remediation recommendations.[1]

Why Copper?

Copper is crucial for defense, infrastructure, electronics, and emerging technologies, making it the U.S. Defense Department’s second-most used material. While the United States maintains significant copper reserves, it only produces half of the refined copper it consumes, making it heavily reliant on foreign suppliers. China controls approximately 50% of global smelting and refining capacity, although the United States sources the majority of its foreign copper from Canada, Chile, and Mexico.[svc2] This reliance, along with potential foreign market manipulation, is believed to pose a national security risk to America’s supply of raw copper, copper concentrates, refined copper, copper alloys, scrap copper, and copper derivative products.[3] Currently, no tariffs or quotas exist on copper imports.

What is Section 232?

Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (19 U.S.C. § 1862) specifically allows the President of the United States to impose import restrictions if certain imports are found to threaten national security. The U.S. Government relies on the Section 232 investigation process to evaluate the threat posed by imports. An application from an interested party or a request from a government department or agency or the Secretary of Commerce can initiate 232 investigations. 

Investigative Process

The 232 investigation will evaluate several key aspects of the U.S. copper supply chain. These include the current and projected demand for copper in critical sectors like defense, energy, and infrastructure, as well as the ability of domestic production, smelting, refining, and recycling to meet this demand. The investigation will also examine the role of foreign supply chains, particularly major exporters, and the risks associated with the concentration of U.S. copper imports from a small number of suppliers. It will assess the impact of foreign government subsidies, overcapacity, and predatory trade practices on U.S. competitiveness, as well as the economic effects of artificially suppressed copper prices through dumping and overproduction. The investigation will explore the potential for foreign nations to restrict exports or weaponize their control over refined copper, and whether increasing domestic copper mining and refining capacity could reduce reliance on imports. Finally, it will review the impact of current trade policies and whether measures such as tariffs or quotas are necessary to safeguard national security.

Under U.S. law, the Commerce Department must consult with the Secretaries of Defense, Interior, and Energy, as well as other relevant agencies, during the investigation. Once initiated, the Secretary of Commerce has 270 days to present findings on whether copper import dependence threatens national security, along with recommendations to mitigate these risks, including tariffs, export controls, or incentives for domestic production. The Secretary will also provide policy suggestions for strengthening the copper supply chain through strategic investments, permitting reforms, and enhanced recycling efforts. While the public may have an opportunity to comment on the investigation, it is not required by statute; the Department of Commerce may gather additional information from surveys of industry stakeholders and other external resources. If the Secretary concludes that imports threaten national security, the President has up to 90 days to decide whether to implement trade restrictions based on these findings.

Potential Outcomes

If President Trump decides to act on the 232 investigation results, adjusting imports of copper to mitigate the perceived national security threat, all measures must be implemented within 15 days. Possible actions include new tariffs and quotas, which would not ban the importation of copper, only limit the import amounts and make them more expensive. The 232 investigation results will help determine the tariff rate.

If President Trump seeks to limit or restrict imports, and either no agreement is reached within 180 days or an agreement fails to address the national security threat, he may take additional actions under Section 232. The President must submit a written statement to Congress explaining his decisions within 30 days and publish notice of all actions in the Federal Register.

If President Trump decides action is unnecessary, he must submit a written statement to Congress within 30 days explaining his reasons. He must also publish this determination and the accompanying explanation in the Federal Register.

Correlating Policies and Next Steps

As part of his America First Trade Policy, President Trump signed proclamations to close loopholes and exemptions, restoring a true 25% tariff on steel and raising the aluminum tariff to 25%. He also raised the general tariff on Chinese imports to 20% in response to China’s alleged role in the fentanyl crisis. Shifting focus to protect a strategic mineral like copper appears consistent with this administration’s trade strategy.

While publishing the executive order signals a meaningful action, it merely initiates the 232 investigation. However, given the administration’s current approach to trade strategy, it seems likely this exercise will lead to additional tariffs—potentially reaching the 25% rate applied to steel and aluminum. New tariffs will almost certainly prompt foreign governments to protest and likely bring challenges before the World Trade Organization. And make no mistake – copper import tariffs will impact the U.S. economy. From defense to electronics to automotive, all major U.S. corporations that depend on copper will feel the pinch.

[1] https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/28/2025-03439/addressing-the-threat-to-national-security-from-imports-of-copper

[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/254877/us-copper-imports-by-major-countries-of-origin/

[3] The definition of copper derivate products will likely be the same used for steel and aluminum derivative products found in Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.