The forthcoming election, pitting former President Donald Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris, is poised to have significant implications for the burgeoning offshore wind industry, largely due to the candidates’ divergent policy perspectives.

Under a Trump administration, the offshore wind sector may encounter substantial headwinds, as Trump’s policy track record emphasizes fossil fuel dominance and regulatory rollbacks. This could result in diminished federal support and a more burdensome regulatory environment for renewable energy projects.

Conversely, a Harris victory is anticipated to further entrench the pro-renewable energy stance taken by the Biden administration. Federal incentives, streamlined regulatory frameworks, and a bolstered commitment to advancing clean energy initiatives would likely follow, fostering an environment conducive to increased investment and expansion in offshore wind projects.

Recent developments underscore the significance of the election for the offshore wind sector. Following the attempted assassination of Trump in July, shares in European wind sector companies plunged, reflecting investor anxiety about a potential Trump victory.^[1] However, since Harris’ entry into the race, the market has stabilized, with industry leaders expressing confidence in continued growth regardless of the election outcome.^[2] This optimism points to the industry’s resilience and the increasing demand for clean energy solutions from tech companies and data centers.

Positions on Offshore Wind

Under Trump, the offshore wind sector could face formidable challenges. Trump’s historical opposition to renewable energy — especially wind — has been well documented.^[3] He has labeled Biden’s green initiatives a “green new scam”^[4] and has pledged to halt offshore wind projects “on day one” if elected.^[5] The selection of JD Vance, a prominent critic of renewable energy, as a running mate further solidifies the potential for an anti-wind agenda. Such an administration would likely favor fossil fuels, resulting in diminished federal support for renewable energy and a regressive regulatory environment. This could hinder the progress made under the Biden administration, particularly in light of its ambitious goals for offshore wind development.

The Biden administration’s commitment to offshore wind includes a goal of developing 30 gigawatts of capacity by 2030, a target that many analysts believe is ambitious but crucial. While achieving this goal may be challenging, the administration has approved several significant offshore wind projects and has announced plans for additional lease sales. Notably, recent actions include a $390 million federal grant for offshore wind upgrades in New England and a $300 million manufacturing plant for cable production.^[6] Additionally, Virginia’s Dominion Energy recently acquired a substantial lease area, signaling ongoing investment in offshore wind infrastructure.

Offshore Wind After a Trump Victory

If Trump were to secure a victory, the offshore wind industry would likely experience some disruptions, the extent of which would depend on whether Trump would undertake what some are calling a “refocused” versus a “retaliate” scenario.^[7] Under a refocused scenario, Trump could direct his agencies to refocus their priorities toward traditional oil and gas resources without necessarily directly canceling or reversing projects. His administration could impose delays in permitting and approvals, severely impacting ongoing projects. Such shifts could result in a reduction of resources for agencies like the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), which oversees offshore energy projects.

Yet, there are instances of bipartisan support for offshore wind, with some Republican governors advocating for wind energy projects because of the significant job creation and investment opportunities they offer.

Offshore Wind After a Harris Victory

Conversely, a Harris victory is anticipated to solidify and advance the pro-renewable energy policies established by Biden. Harris is expected to maintain the Biden administration’s commitment to clean energy through tax incentives and supportive regulations, primarily leveraging the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This framework has already catalyzed investments and projects that promise to elevate the offshore wind industry, despite current political uncertainties.

If Harris wins and Democrats maintain control of both houses of Congress, expanded support for renewable energy initiatives is likely. This would create an environment conducive to further legislative backing for decarbonization and green infrastructure. However, if Congress remains divided, new legislative support may falter, although existing programs could continue.

Industry Is Cautiously Optimistic

The implications of the forthcoming election extend far beyond political rhetoric, directly influencing the trajectory of the offshore wind industry. Investors, developers, and stakeholders must closely monitor the evolving political landscape, as the outcome will have lasting effects on the United States’ transition to renewable energy.

Footnotes

[1] “EU wind shares plunge as Trump win chances soar after assassination bid” | Recharge (rechargenews.com)

[2] “Wind developers bid $93M for mid-Atlantic — blowing off Trump 2.0 threat” | POLITICO (politico.com)

[3] “‘The wind is bulls—t’: Trump in new tirade against green power” | Recharge (rechargenews.com); “Trump’s ‘green new scam’ label for climate change policies is making an impact in Europe” | Fast Company (fastcompany.com)

[4] “Trump Pledges to End the ‘Green New Scam’” | Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)

[5] “Trump Vows ‘Day One’ Executive Order Targeting Offshore Wind” | Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)

[6] “Hellenic Cables to Build a $300 Million Cable Manufacturing Plant in Wagner’s Point” (constructionreviewonline.com)

[7] “US ELECTIONS: Trump win could slow offshore wind power development through legal action” | S&P Global Commodity Insights (spglobal.com)