On April 26, 2017, France’s National Research and Safety Institute (INRS) published a press release announcing the availability of an English summary of a foresight study conducted in 2014 on the development of nanomaterials by 2030 and the consequences on safety and health in small businesses in France.  Four scenarios were envisioned:

(1) Strong and successful commitment from both state and industry:  massive development;

• Economy driven by innovation;

• Strong state involvement;

• Marked interest by companies;

• Controlled health and environment risks;

• An enthusiastic society;

• Massive, global development; and

• Suitable prevention means are generally set up in companies but there is a residual risk of transient exposure or accidents in poorly controlled work situations and difficulties for the ageing population to adapt to the pace of change;

(2) Informed rejection by society:  development in a few strategic sectors:

• An economic and political debacle;

• Destruction of the industrial fabric;

• Distrust of innovation by society;

• Uncertain health and environment risks; and

• Slow development, confined to a few strategic sectors deemed priorities;

(3) Industry in the driving seat:  development in growth sectors only:

• A morose economic situation;

• Very limited political support;

• A certain disinterest by society;

• Health and environment risks not assessed;

• Development heavily supported by manufacturers, but rationalized and targeted at growth sectors; and

• Prevention of occupational risks is strictly handled by companies and is mainly oriented towards preserving the means of production. The response, mostly insurance-focused, is based on compensation and not on prevention;

(4)  Sustained regional will:  development based on local skills:

• A strong and prosperous Europe of the regions;

• Massive support in certain regions;

• A peaceful and indifferent society;

• Health and environment risks poorly studied and therefore not anticipated;

• Development based on local skills: creation of clusters of excellence; and

• Occupational risks are generally managed by local structures located within clusters of competitiveness. These regional entities apply the rules decided at European level, based on co-management between employer associations and employee unions.

According to INRS, the possible future outcomes “should lead to a better apprehension of the risks associated with these promising materials.”  The foresight study is one of three exercises that INRS has conducted to date.  In 2017, INRS intends to begin a fourth exercise that will address the circular economy and its consequences on occupational safety and health.