Jeff Hay and Jonathan Blair discuss alternatives to a bilateral agreement and if the pragmatic solution is free trade between the U.K. and the EU in this latest addition to our multi-part video series discussing the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU and the potential challenges and opportunities Brexit poses for businesses on either side of the Atlantic.

Jeff: So, we’re all assuming that everybody is going to be reasonable and get to an agreement, but we saw in the T-TIP negotiations.  You know, those were not really that agreeable on lots of different issues, and you had Poland arguing about something, and the French arguing about everything, because their French.  And, so I mean we also heard, you know, we’ve heard things about alternatives to a bilateral agreement with Europe.  Can you talk about what some of those alternatives might be?

Jonathan: Absolutely.  The, the full back position will be the World Trade Organization position.  There have been a lot of discussion around how the UK will trade with Europe and following it’s exit.  Will it be the Canadian model.  Will it be the Norwegian model.  Is there a Swiss model, Iceland model and ....  It won’t be any of those.  It will be a UK model.  That’s what it will be.  I think the most plausible commentary I’ve heard recently, it will be a Norwegian model with bells on.  I’m not quite sure what that means, and that’s because nobody’s really quite sure what that means.  I think for all practical purposes and pragmatically what it has to mean, is that there is free trade with the UK, between the UK and Europe.  I mean don’t forget that almost 50% of the export of goods and services from the UK goes to Europe either directly or indirectly facilitated through the U trade agreements.  So, there’s going to be, there needs to be free trade between the UK and the rest of the European Union.  As we discussed in the earlier panel, the price for that is going to be ironically given that it featured so prominently in the whole debate pre referendum.  The price will be free movement of people.  So, my guess, and this is ill informed and guess is that actually we will end up having pretty much what we’ve got with one very significant difference, which is that we will not have a say in the rules and regulations which will then be imposed upon the United Kingdom.

View Part 1 - Brexit: Overview and Reactions

View Part 2 - Brexit: Currency Issues and Inflation

View Part 3 - Brexit: Outlook for the EU and Impact on the U.S.

View Part 4 - Brexit: U.S. Opportunity in the U.K.

View Part 5 - Brexit: The Impact on Mergers & Acquisitions

View Part 7 - Brexit’s Potential Impact on Corporate Passporting and the Banking Industry

View Part 8 - Brexit’s Potential Impact on Corporate Passporting and the Banking Industry