Most voters will not see a single door knocker this fall. A small number will not be able to get anyone to leave them alone. In this episode of Early Returns, host Jan Baran speaks with Republican campaign consultant Jon Seaton about where the 2026 midterms are actually being fought and what that means for the person holding the ballot. 

Fewer than 40 of the 435 House seats are genuinely in play, with Republicans defending 23 and Democrats 14 according to the Cook Political Report. Seaton calls it a knife fight in a phone booth. On the Senate map, Alaska, Ohio and Iowa have come into play while Georgia has dropped off, and Republicans are defending up to six seats from Maine to Alaska.

Election Day is now election weeks. Absentee ballots sit on kitchen counters until the deadline passes, so campaigns escalate as the calendar shrinks, and by the Wednesday before Election Day the message flips from mail it to go vote in person or drop it at a voting center. Campaigns can see who has returned a ballot and who has not, which is why the calls and the door knocks stop the moment you vote. 

Seaton shares why half the voters in some districts never see a television ad, how the Supreme Court's decision in NRSC v. FEC opened up data sharing between parties, campaigns and super PACs, and why a president who is not on the ballot may still decide who turns out. 

If no wave is coming and the House is a genuine toss-up, does this election get decided at your door or on your screen?

About Jon Seaton:

Jon Seaton is a Republican political strategist and founding partner of the firm
Echo Canyon Consulting. He was a senior political advisor for Lindsey Graham's 2016 presidential campaign. Previously, Seaton worked as the state of Washington executive director for George W. Bush's 2004 presidential campaign and in a number of roles for John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, including work as national field director, Iowa caucus director, and regional campaign manager. Originally from Berkeley, Calif., Seaton is a graduate of the University of Colorado at Boulder.